“Tamil Eelam and the Battle for the Indian Ocean: How Sri Lanka Became a Geopolitical Fault Line”

✍️ By Balananthini Balasubramaniam, Rahul Rameshkumar, Thibaharan Thiagarajah M.A, Dr Nicola Garrington, Dr Shreegumi Dharman Vijeyen.

Small Drops (UK)

“This is not only a story of injustice — it is a lesson in how geography, when silenced, reshapes global power.”

Introduction

As China tightens its grip on the Indian Ocean through deep-sea ports, maritime infrastructure, and strategic trade routes, regional powers must confront a critical reality: the systematic suppression of the Eelam Tamil population in Sri Lanka was not merely a domestic counter-insurgency, but a process that ultimately aligned with—and was materially enabled by—China’s expanding geopolitical interests in a highly sensitive maritime region.

If India and Western democracies are genuinely committed to maritime security, freedom of navigation, and balancing China’s rise in the Indian Ocean, it is time to revisit the Tamil Eelam question not solely as a humanitarian concern, but as a strategic variable within the broader South Asian maritime theatre.

The Geopolitical Value of the Tamil Homeland

The Northern and Eastern Provinces of Sri Lanka—historically inhabited by the Eelam Tamils—occupy a critical maritime crossroads linking the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and Southeast Asia. These waters constitute vital arteries for global trade, energy transport, and naval mobility; sustained foreign influence or militarisation in this zone carries direct implications for Indian Ocean security.

Before 2009, Tamil-controlled territories functioned, at least implicitly, as a geopolitical barrier limiting unfettered external dominance—particularly by authoritarian powers seeking permanent maritime footholds. In the post-war period, however, the strategic landscape has shifted markedly:

I) China invested more than USD 1.5 billion in the Hambantota Port project, which has since been leased to a Chinese state-owned enterprise for 99 years.

II) Chinese-funded infrastructure, digital surveillance, and dual-use projects have expanded across Sri Lanka with limited transparency or parliamentary oversight.

III) The Tamil homeland has been subjected to extensive militarisation, with over 16 of Sri Lanka’s 19 military divisions reportedly stationed in the Northern and Eastern Provinces.

This concentration of military power in Tamil areas has profound implications not only for local governance and civil liberties, but also for regional security dynamics affecting India’s southern naval command and its wider Indian Ocean surveillance architecture.

China’s Role in the Defeat of Tamil Resistance

China’s political, military, and financial support to the Sri Lankan state during the civil war—through arms transfers, concessional loans, and sustained diplomatic protection at the United Nations—significantly reduced the international and material costs for Colombo in pursuing a decisive military solution.

This support was less about preserving Sri Lankan sovereignty than about securing long-term strategic access to ports, sea lanes, and political influence in South Asia. By aligning itself with Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist forces, China benefited from the dismantling of Tamil political and territorial leverage, thereby eliminating a regional actor whose autonomy and geography could have constrained external maritime penetration.

The outcome was not merely the military defeat of the Tamil resistance, but the consolidation of an environment conducive to Chinese strategic expansion across the island.

The Cyprus Model: A Diplomatic Framework

for Sri Lanka

During his recent visit to Cyprus, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi implicitly signalled India’s willingness to engage with complex and contested sovereignty arrangements. The Cyprus model—where the island remains politically divided between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots under distinct administrative systems—offers an instructive, though imperfect, precedent.

Key lessons include:

I) Functional autonomy and international recognition can coexist without continuous conflict.

II) Historical grievances can be managed through negotiated political structures while preserving regional stability.

While the Cyprus model has limitations and remains unresolved, it demonstrates that shared or layered sovereignty arrangements need not undermine geopolitical order. A comparable federal or autonomous framework for Tamil Eelam—recognised internally and supported by international guarantees—could simultaneously advance Sri Lanka’s internal reconciliation and broader Indian Ocean security objectives.

Strategic Benefits of Supporting Tamil Eelam

For India and Western democratic partners, a stable and self-governing Tamil region offers tangible strategic advantages:

I) Maritime Security: A demilitarised, Tamil-administered coastal region aligned with democratic partners could function as a stabilising maritime-facing zone, limiting Chinese naval, intelligence, and logistical expansion.

II) Diplomatic Balance: Tamil self-rule would reduce Sri Lanka’s growing overdependence on China and facilitate a more balanced foreign policy orientation.

III) Diaspora Leverage: The global Tamil diaspora—particularly in the UK, Canada, and Europe—represents a significant reservoir of soft power, investment capacity, and political advocacy within Western democracies.

Policy Recommendations

I) India and Quad partners (Japan, the United States, and Australia) should initiate a structured Tamil Eelam strategic dialogue within an Indian Ocean maritime security framework.

II) Encourage Sri Lanka to adopt a genuinely federal constitutional model, drawing lessons from Cyprus and the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq.

III) Advocate for UN-monitored demilitarisation of Tamil regions and the restoration of civilian economic and administrative authority.

IV) Support Tamil-led development initiatives, including port management and coastal infrastructure, with safeguards involving Indian and Western investors.

V) Formally recognise the Tamil genocide and establish internationally backed truth, justice, and reconciliation mechanisms under UN and Commonwealth auspices.

Conclusion

Tamil Eelam Is a Solution, Not a Problem

Dismissing the Tamil question as an outdated or purely separatist issue is strategically myopic. Tamil Eelam represents not only justice for a historically persecuted people, but also a credible response to the accelerating expansion of Chinese influence in one of the world’s most critical maritime zones.

If India and Western powers are serious about sustaining a free, open, and multipolar Indian Ocean, they must recognise that this objective cannot be achieved while ignoring the political geography of Sri Lanka’s Tamil homeland. Peace, security, and sovereignty are not mutually exclusive; through principled, strategic, and inclusive diplomacy, they can be realised together.

References

*Historical and Conflict Background*

DeVotta, N. (2004). Blowback: Linguistic Nationalism, Institutional Decay, and Ethnic Conflict in Sri Lanka. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Gunaratna, R. (2010). Sri Lanka’s Ethnic Crisis and National Security. Colombo: Institute of Defence Studies.

Hoole, R., et al. (1990–2009). The Tamil Genocide in Sri Lanka: Documentation of Civilian Killings and Disappearances. Jaffna: University of Jaffna.

*China’s Role in Sri Lanka*

Brewster, D. (2014). India and the Indian Ocean: Strategic Interests, Geopolitics, and Chinese Expansion. New Delhi: Routledge.

McGurk, J. (2018). “China’s Port Investments in the Indian Ocean: Hambantota and Beyond.” Asian Maritime Affairs Journal, 12(3), 45–67.

Abi-Habib, M. (2018). “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port.” The New York Times, 25 December.

*Geopolitical and Strategic Analysis*

Mastro, O. (2020). The Stealth Superpower: How China Expands Its Influence in the Indian Ocean. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press.

Singh, B. (2021). Maritime Security and Great Power Competition in the Indian Ocean. London: Chatham House.

Kuo, M. A. (2020).

“China’s Belt and Road and the Indian Ocean: Implications for Regional Security.” Journal of Asian Security Studies, 15(2), 101–125.

*Cyprus Model and Federal Solutions*

Ker-Lindsay, J. (2011). The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Tocci, N. (2012). The EU and Conflict Resolution: Promoting Peace in the Mediterranean and Beyond. London: Routledge.

Hannay, D. (2005). Cyprus: The Search for a Solution. London: I.B. Tauris.

*Policy/Think Tank Reports*

International Crisis Group. (2015). Sri Lanka: Post-War Challenges and Reconciliation. Brussels: ICG.

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). (2022). China in the Indian Ocean: Strategic Implications for India and the West. New Delhi: IDSA Report.

United Nations Human Rights Council. (2011). Report of the OHCHR Investigation on Sri Lanka (OISL). Geneva: UNHRC.

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