Tamil Eelam: A Strategic Node for Indo-Pacific Stability, Global Cooperation, and Regional Realignment

“Tamil Eelam is a strategic shield for the Global South and North in the Indian Ocean.”

*Preface*

Academic & Legal Disclaimer

This article presents a theoretical and analytical examination of geopolitical strategy within international relations, maritime security, and strategic studies. It does not advocate violence, armed action, or unlawful conduct, nor does it constitute a policy prescription for any state or non-state actor. The analysis is hypothetical, academic, and intended solely to evaluate strategic consequences within a counterfactual framework.

All views expressed are those of the author alone and are protected as academic opinion and political analysis under principles of freedom of expression.

*Abstract*

Sri Lanka occupies a pivotal position within the Indian Ocean, serving as a maritime nexus between East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Chinese infrastructure investments, notably in Hambantota Port and Colombo Port City, have significantly altered the regional strategic balance. This study presents a counterfactual analysis in which the emergence of a sovereign Tamil Eelam reconfigures Sri Lanka’s territorial and maritime landscape, constrains China’s operational freedom, and creates a platform for multilateral collaboration between over 80 nations across the Global South and Global North. The article further examines implications for India’s maritime posture, Western strategic interests, and the broader Indo-Pacific security architecture. All analysis is framed in accordance with international law and human rights norms.

*1. Introduction*

China’s maritime expansion in the Indian Ocean, particularly through infrastructure investment and strategic port access, constitutes a central concern for regional powers, most prominently India. Sri Lanka’s geographic location, at the intersection of major sea lines of communication, renders it a strategic fulcrum.

This study explores a hypothetical scenario in which the establishment of a sovereign Tamil Eelam in northern and eastern Sri Lanka reconfigures maritime jurisdiction. Such a scenario evaluates the potential to constrain Chinese manoeuvrability, enhance India’s strategic depth, and provide a lawful, internationally recognised platform for Tamil self-determination and multilateral cooperation.

*2. China’s Strategic Assets in Sri Lanka*

China’s influence in Sri Lanka is institutionalised through large-scale infrastructure projects, including Hambantota Port and Colombo Port City. Long-term lease agreements, in some cases extending up to ninety-nine years, provide operational depth and strategic flexibility.¹ Their effectiveness, however, is entirely dependent on uninterrupted maritime access. Any disruption of these sea lines would significantly reduce their strategic utility, highlighting the vulnerability of China’s current Indian Ocean posture.²

*3. Territorial Reconfiguration and Maritime Consequences*

A sovereign Tamil Eelam would transfer jurisdiction over northern and eastern maritime zones, limiting Chinese access to multiple operational corridors. Routes connecting Hambantota to Southeast Asia, including passages towards Myanmar, would become restricted. China would consequently be forced to rely on a southern corridor via the Maldives, which remains geopolitically exposed to Indian and allied oversight.³

This scenario illustrates the profound effect that territorial sovereignty has on maritime strategy and great-power calculations.

*4. Strategic Vulnerabilities in the Southern Corridor*

Although the southern corridor remains operationally available, it is structurally vulnerable. India exercises influence over the Maldives and surrounding island territories, while the United States maintains a naval installation at Diego Garcia, approximately 1,100 kilometres from Sri Lanka.⁴ These factors collectively constrain Chinese manoeuvrability in the central Indian Ocean, rendering any alternative route highly susceptible to strategic oversight.

*5. Tamil Eelam as a Global Strategic Hub*

Tamil Eelam’s location offers extraordinary strategic leverage: it is ideally positioned to serve as a platform for multilateral cooperation involving more than 80 nations across the Global South and Global North. Its ports, maritime corridors, and proximity to major sea lanes provide opportunities for:

1. Maritime Security Cooperation – Naval exercises, anti-piracy operations, and secure shipping routes.

2. Economic and Infrastructure Development – Collaborative port development, energy logistics, and maritime technology initiatives.

3. Scientific Research and Climate Projects – Oceanographic studies, renewable energy infrastructure, and marine resource management.

4. Geopolitical Balancing – Offering a neutral platform for collaboration that reduces hegemonic dominance, strengthens multilateralism, and stabilises Indo-Pacific security.⁵

By functioning as both a stabilising regional actor and a hub for global cooperation, Tamil Eelam provides India, Western powers, ASEAN nations, and Global South states with a platform for legally and ethically sound strategic engagement.

*6. Implications for China’s Maritime Strategy*

Under these constraints, China’s strategic posture in Sri Lanka would be substantially weakened. Its operational freedom in the Indian Ocean would be reduced to a single vulnerable southern corridor. Consequently, rational strategic recalibration would necessitate a primary focus on the South China Sea, where Beijing’s key geopolitical objectives reside. This illustrates the centrality of maritime access in sustaining Chinese influence.⁶

*7. India’s Strategic Advantages*

India possesses a combination of geographical endowment, historical naval capability, and strategic partnerships that confer considerable leverage in the Indian Ocean. Its extensive coastline and inherent maritime depth, coupled with alliances with Japan, Australia, Indonesia, and longstanding relations with Russia, position India as a central stabilising force in the Indo-Pacific.⁷

Tamil Eelam’s emergence would reinforce India’s southern maritime flank, providing both a buffer and a multilateral platform for global cooperation.

*8. Implications for the Sri Lankan State*

The hypothetical reduction of Chinese influence would impose structural pressure on Sri Lanka’s political establishment. Historical precedent demonstrates that policy realignment in Colombo has typically occurred under conditions of external pressure rather than voluntary reform.⁸ Consequently, strategic alignment with India would emerge as the most viable course of action, enhancing regional stability.

*9. Strategic Engagement with the Eelam Tamil Polity*

Historical engagement frameworks have over-relied on Colombo as the sole interlocutor, often marginalising Tamil political aspirations. A strategic reorientation is warranted, prioritising lawful, international engagement with Tamil representatives, as recognised in post-Soviet transitions and international autonomy frameworks.⁹

Core components of this framework include:

1. Recognition of Self-Determination – Consistent with UN Charter principles and international human rights law.¹⁰

2. Direct Political Engagement – Inclusive dialogue with elected Tamil representatives and diaspora leadership.¹¹

3. Conditional Support for Colombo – Assistance contingent upon demonstrable political reform, demilitarisation, and accountability.¹²

4. Internationalised Transitional Mechanisms – UN-supervised autonomy, phased sovereignty, or trusteeship models.¹³

5. Protection-Centred Approach – Prioritising civilian safety, economic recovery, and institutional development.¹⁴

6. Strategic Leverage – Utilizing Tamil self-determination to constrain Chinese operational freedom while promoting multilateral cooperation.¹⁵

*10. Policy Recommendations*

10.1 For India

1. Expand maritime surveillance and intelligence-sharing across Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Indian Ocean islands.

2. Strengthen bilateral and multilateral security partnerships with Japan, Australia, Indonesia, and Singapore.

3. Invest in alternative ports and logistical nodes along the Indian Ocean rim.

4. Engage diplomatically with Colombo to incentivise political reform and lawful power-sharing.¹⁶

10.2 For Western Powers

1. Maintain and expand naval presence in the Indian Ocean.

2. Strengthen multilateral frameworks such as the Quad to balance Chinese influence.

3. Support transparent infrastructure projects and multilateral development initiatives.

4. Facilitate joint research and intelligence collaboration.¹⁷

10.3 For Global Tamil Engagement

1. Recognise Tamil political entities as legitimate stakeholders.

2. Engage directly with civil institutions and diaspora leadership.

3. Condition engagement with Colombo on tangible reform.

4. Explore transitional frameworks ensuring lawful governance.

5. Prioritise civilian protection, economic sustainability, and institutional capacity building.

6. Leverage Tamil Eelam as a hub for multilateral cooperation among 80+ Global South and North nations.¹⁸

*11. Conclusion*

The establishment of a sovereign Tamil Eelam would profoundly reshape regional strategic dynamics. By constraining Chinese influence, strengthening India’s maritime posture, and providing a platform for lawful Tamil self-determination, Tamil Eelam can function as a global cooperation hub, enhancing stability, promoting multilateral engagement, and securing the Indo-Pacific against unilateral domination. This framework integrates legal, humanitarian, and geopolitical imperatives, offering a full-spectrum, internationally grounded solution for regional security and global collaboration.¹⁹

*References*

1. Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton, 2001.

2. Kaplan, Robert D. Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power. New York: Random House, 2010.

3. Ministry of Defence, United Kingdom. Strategic Geography and Maritime Access in the Indian Ocean. London: UK MOD, 2018.

4. Fravel, M. Taylor. China’s Strategy in the South China Sea. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011.

5. Brewster, David. India as an Emerging Power in the Indian Ocean. Singapore: ISEAS, 2014.

6. DeVotta, Neil. Sinhalese Nationalism and Sri Lanka’s Foreign Policy. Colombo: ICES, 2004.

7. Malone, David M. Does the Elephant Dance? Contemporary Indian Foreign Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011.

8. Shastri, Amita. “The Material Basis for Separatism: The Tamil Eelam Movement in Sri Lanka.” The Journal of Asian Studies, Cambridge University Press.

9. Rasaratnam, Madurika. Tamil Nationalism Today. Oxford University Press.

10. Vaddukoddai Resolution (1976). (en.wikipedia.org)

11. 2009–2010 Tamil Eelam independence referendums. (en.wikipedia.org)

12. Mendis, Patrick. Destiny of the Pearl: How Sri Lanka’s Colombo Consensus… Yale Journal of International Affairs.

13. Brewster, David. India as an Emerging Power in the Indian Ocean.

14. Fravel, M. Taylor. China’s Strategy in the South China Sea.

15. Rasaratnam, Madurika. Tamil Nationalism Today.

16. Kaplan, Robert D. Monsoon.

17. Ministry of Defence, UK. Strategic Geography.

18. Brewster, David. India as an Emerging Power in the Indian Ocean.

19. Shastri, Amita. “The Material Basis for Separatism.”

Nila bala

16/02/2022

United Kingdom

09:01