The Vanishing Tamil: War, Demography, and the Structural Decline of Hinduism in Sri Lanka

President Nila
Sep 30
5 min read

By Small Drops Balananthini Balasubramaniam

Introduction

Sri Lanka’s recent history must be understood as a profound religious–civilisational struggle. At its core lies a confrontation between two distinct identity groups:

The LTTE, not merely a militant organisation, but a Hindu Santhana group defending the heritage, religion, and homeland of Eelam Tamils.

The Sri Lankan state, which functions as a Sinhala Theravada Buddhist group, shaping law, policy, and demography to strengthen its religious–civilisational dominance.

This framing is central to understanding the demographic and cultural changes in Sri Lanka, and is based on sustained research and advocacy conducted across Indian states.

Demographic Collapse: The Census Record

According to the Department of Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka, in 1981 Eelam Tamils comprised around 24% of the national population. By 2012 this figure had fallen to 11%, representing a halving of their share within three decades.

This collapse reflects not merely war casualties, but systemic displacement and erasure. Official government records state that 2,500 Sinhala civilians lost their lives during the war. By contrast, UN estimates place Tamil civilian deaths at 40,000 in the final months alone, with a total of 80,000–100,000 killed throughout the conflict.

Religious Demography: A Structural Decline of Hinduism

Global religious demographic research — notably the EAC-PM (Empowered Action Group – Population and Migration) study from India, published 30 August 2024 — reveals a striking long-term decline in Hindu presence in Sri Lanka. These figures support the analysis presented here that Sri Lanka functions as a Sinhala Theravada Buddhist state:

Year: 1950

Buddhist 64% Hindu 20% Christian 9% Islam 7%

Year: 2015

Buddhist 67% Hindu 15% Christian 8% Islam 10%

This represents a 28% fall in the Hindu share of the population over 65 years, even as the Sinhala-Buddhist share grew. Such trends are not demographic happenstance: they reflect a sustained process of colonisation of Tamil lands, forced displacement of Hindu communities, and suppression of Hindu religious life.

Targeted Military Strikes and Economic Impact: Uganda 1976 and LTTE 2001

A comparative analysis of these two events shows a clear similarity: both were targeted military operations aimed at weakening a government, without indiscriminate civilian targeting — but with very different economic consequences.

Uganda 1976 (Entebbe Raid): On 4 July 1976, Israeli commandos conducted Operation Entebbe (Operation Thunderbolt) to rescue hostages held at Entebbe International Airport in Uganda by Palestinian and German hijackers.

Casualties: 1 Israeli soldier killed; about 45 Ugandan soldiers killed; 3 hostages killed; all hijackers killed.

Economic Impact: Minimal — estimated at a few million USD, mostly operational costs. The raid did not cause significant infrastructure damage beyond military losses.

Sri Lanka 2001 (Katunayaka Airport Attack): On 24 July 2001, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) carried out a suicide attack on Bandaranaike International Airport in Katunayake. The attack specifically targeted Sri Lanka’s military assets and also severely damaged civilian aviation infrastructure.

Casualties: 7 Sri Lankan soldiers killed, 12 wounded; 14 LTTE fighters killed.

Economic Impact: Estimated at $450 million USD, including the destruction of military aircraft (MiG-27s, Mi-24 helicopters, Kfir jets) and civilian aircraft (two Airbus A330s and one Airbus A340 destroyed, others damaged). This caused weeks of airport closure, disrupting tourism and trade.

These cases demonstrate that both operations were strategic strikes against government power centres, but the Sri Lanka attack carried far greater economic consequences.

Economic Targeting and the Double Standard of “Terrorism”

In modern warfare, targeting an opponent’s economic capacity is an established strategy. Major powers routinely engage in economic warfare through blockades, tariffs, sanctions, and strategic business agreements — yet these actions are almost never described as “terrorist attacks.” Instead, they are framed as acts of statecraft, defence, or economic policy.

Examples include:

Israel’s Entebbe Raid (1976) — a targeted military operation against Uganda without indiscriminate civilian targeting.
China’s economic and military operations — including strategic blockades, trade restrictions, and tariffs designed to weaken the economy of an adversary.
Russia’s economic warfare — including tariffs, sanctions, energy blockades, and control of commodity supplies to influence political outcomes.
Global powers’ trade policies — such as tariffs, strategic business agreements, and “buy-and-take” strategies, which affect national economies without being labelled terrorism.
China’s Maritime Strategy: Development or Economic Warfare?
China’s expansion into global maritime routes is often presented as an infrastructure and development programme under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Ports, shipping lanes, and supply chains in the Indian Ocean, Africa, and Asia are developed under the guise of “connectivity” and economic cooperation.

However, strategic analysis shows that these moves are designed to capture marine routes, control global supply chains, and interfere with the economic independence of other nations. These actions include:

Building ports in key geopolitical locations (e.g., Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan).
Securing control over critical sea lanes such as the Strait of Malacca.
Using “development projects” as leverage to influence the political economy of partner nations.

This is a form of economic warfare disguised as development — a strategy that parallels traditional military targeting of economic infrastructure, yet is rarely labelled as such in international discourse.

By contrast, when the LTTE targeted Bandaranaike International Airport in 2001 — a direct and tactical strike against Sri Lanka’s economic and military capacity — it was branded globally as a “terrorist attack,” despite avoiding civilian casualties entirely.

This reveals a deep double standard in how economic targeting is described: major powers conduct economic warfare under the language of development and statecraft, but smaller groups or nations using similar tactics are condemned as terrorists.

Final Conclusion: A Shared Principle — No Civilian Targeting

The Uganda 1976 Entebbe Raid and the Sri Lanka 2001 Katunayaka Airport Attack share a crucial similarity: both were targeted military operations aimed at weakening a government, and neither deliberately targeted civilians.

In Uganda, Israel’s operation was designed to rescue hostages and neutralise the Ugandan government’s military capacity. Civilian casualties were avoided, with losses confined to combatants and specific targets.

In Sri Lanka, the LTTE’s attack on Katunayaka Airport was a strategic strike against military infrastructure, with no civilian casualties reported — only LTTE fighters themselves were killed.

This demonstrates that, despite their different contexts, both actions were acts of war, not acts of indiscriminate terrorism. The distinction is crucial in re-evaluating how such operations are framed in global discourse.

Date: 30 August 2024

(Disclaimer: Images are AI generated and are used for representational purposes only)

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SMALL DROPS