Post-War Governance, Militarisation, and Social Vulnerability in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka: A Post-Conflict Security Analysis

Abstract

This article examines the structural paradox between sustained militarisation and persistent social vulnerability in Sri Lanka’s Northern and Eastern Provinces following the end of the civil war in 2009. Using a reported incident of alleged child exploitation as an analytical entry point, it explores the relationship between security saturation and civilian protection outcomes. Drawing on post-conflict governance, securitisation theory, and human security frameworks, the paper argues that Sri Lanka’s post-war state formation reflects a persistent disjunction between territorial control and effective social protection (Richmond, 2022; UNDP, 2022).

1. Introduction

A recent reported incident in Punnai Nirabiyadi, Kilinochchi District—alleging the transport and sale of an 18-month-old child for LKR 50,000—has renewed scrutiny of child protection systems and broader patterns of social vulnerability in Sri Lanka’s Northern Province.

While the legal process is ongoing and factual determinations remain pending, the analytical relevance of such incidents lies in their capacity to illuminate underlying structural governance conditions in post-conflict environments (OHCHR, 2024).

2. Theoretical Framework

2.1 Securitisation Theory

The Copenhagen School conceptualises securitisation as the process through which political issues are framed as existential threats, thereby legitimising extraordinary state measures (Buzan, Wæver and de Wilde, 1998). Post-war Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka remain highly securitised governance spaces.

2.2 Governmentality

Foucault’s theory of governmentality explains how modern states regulate populations through dispersed administrative, disciplinary, and surveillance mechanisms beyond direct coercion (Foucault, 1991; Duffield, 2020).

2.3 Post-Conflict State Formation

Post-conflict governance literature highlights tensions between military consolidation and civilian institution-building in societies emerging from prolonged internal war (Paris, 2020; Chandler, 2010).

3. Pre-2009 Governance and Localised Social Order

Prior to 2009, significant portions of the Northern Province (approximately 90%) and Eastern Province (approximately 70%) were administered by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which operated a parallel governance system including policing, judicial processes, and civil regulation.

Key characteristics included:

- Centralised enforcement of local social order

- Rapid punitive responses to perceived deviance

- Strong regulation of civilian life outside formal state institutions

This reflects Scott’s (1998) analysis of highly structured and legible governance systems operating outside conventional state frameworks.

4. Post-2009 Militarised Governance Structure

Following the end of the armed conflict in 2009, the Government of Sri Lanka assumed full administrative control over the Northern and Eastern Provinces, accompanied by extensive military deployment and expanded bureaucratic oversight.

Key features include:

- Continued military presence in civilian and semi-civilian spaces

- Dense surveillance and checkpoint systems

- Centralisation of administrative authority under state structures

However, empirical research in post-conflict governance consistently shows that militarisation does not automatically translate into improved human security outcomes (Goodhand, 2021; Richmond, 2022).

5. Structural Origins of the Post-2020 Economic Crisis

The economic crisis that intensified after 2020 is best understood as a cumulative structural failure rather than a sudden shock. It reflects long-term fiscal, external, and institutional vulnerabilities embedded within Sri Lanka’s development model.

Key drivers include:

- Chronic fiscal deficits and weak revenue mobilisation

- High dependency on external debt and sovereign bonds

- A consumption-led growth model with limited productive diversification

- Sharp fiscal contraction following the 2019 tax policy changes, reducing state revenue capacity

- Severe balance-of-payments constraints leading to foreign exchange shortages

- Collapse in tourism due to COVID-19 and reduced remittance inflows

- Import dependency in essential sectors such as fuel, food, and medicine

These structural weaknesses culminated in supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressure, and widespread shortages, particularly affecting already fragile post-conflict regions (World Bank, 2023; UNDP, 2022; IMF, 2023).

6. Analytical Tension: Security Saturation vs Human Security

Despite sustained militarisation, persistent social vulnerability reveals a structural contradiction in post-war governance:

"High security presence does not necessarily produce equivalent improvements in human security outcomes."

Key analytical questions include:

- Whether governance prioritises territorial control over social welfare

- Whether child protection and welfare systems are institutionally robust

- Whether policing and local governance structures remain fragmented

- Whether increased reporting rather than increased incidence explains observed cases (ICG, 2024)

7. War, Constitutional Structure, and Structural Violence Debate

Sri Lanka’s post-war governance architecture is closely linked to its constitutional and legal framework, particularly provisions governing emergency rule and public security. These frameworks have historically enabled strong centralisation of executive authority during periods of conflict and post-conflict stabilisation.

From a structural perspective, such frameworks have facilitated the expansion of militarised governance in formerly conflict-affected regions, particularly after 2009.

Some critical scholarship interprets these dynamics through the lens of structural violence, where institutional arrangements produce unequal exposure to harm and vulnerability (Galtung, 1969). In certain activist and interpretive academic discourses, concerns regarding militarisation and long-term inequality have been framed in terms of systemic oppression or “structural genocide conditions.”

However, it is important to distinguish between:

- structural inequality and governance deficits, and

- the legal definition of genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention, which requires demonstrable intent to destroy a protected group in whole or in part.

As such, while debates regarding post-war governance, militarisation, and minority rights remain legitimate within political science and human rights scholarship, the classification of these processes as a deliberate “genocide policy” is not a settled legal finding and remains contested.

8. Structural Interpretation

Rather than interpreting incidents as isolated criminal events, post-conflict governance literature encourages a structural reading:

- Institutional fragmentation after conflict termination

- Breakdown of local mediation and enforcement systems

- Expansion of informal and survival economies under economic stress

- Centralised security systems without equivalent welfare reconstruction

These patterns are widely documented in comparative post-conflict contexts (Chandler, 2010; UNDP, 2022; Richmond, 2022).

9. Conclusion

The Kilinochchi incident functions as an analytical entry point into broader structural contradictions in Sri Lanka’s post-war governance landscape.

The transition from pre-2009 to post-2009 governance reflects a shift from locally embedded regulatory systems to a centralised militarised state structure. However, this transformation has not produced equivalent improvements in human security outcomes.

The persistence of vulnerability within a heavily securitised environment indicates a structural disjunction between control and protection.

Addressing this requires:

- Reorientation towards human security frameworks (UNDP, 2022)

- Strengthening child protection institutions (UNICEF, 2025)

- Reinforcement of local governance mechanisms

- Enhanced institutional accountability and transparency (OHCHR, 2024)

Without such reforms, the gap between militarisation and civilian protection is likely to remain a defining feature of post-conflict governance.

References

Buzan, B., Wæver, O. and de Wilde, J. (1998) Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

II) Chandler, D. (2010) International Statebuilding: The Rise of Post-Liberal Governance. London: Routledge.

III) Duffield, M. (2020) Post-humanitarianism: Governing insecurity in the 21st century. Cambridge: Polity Press.

IV) Foucault, M. (1991) Governmentality. In: Burchell, G., Gordon, C. and Miller, P. (eds.) The Foucault Effect. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

V) Galtung, J. (1969) ‘Violence, Peace, and Peace Research’, Journal of Peace Research, 6(3), pp. 167–191.

VI) Goodhand, J. (2021) ‘War economies and post-war transitions in Sri Lanka’, Conflict, Security & Development, 21(4), pp. 415–438.

VII)International Crisis Group (ICG) (2024) Sri Lanka: Fragile recovery and governance challenges. Brussels: ICG.

VIII)International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023) Sri Lanka: Staff report on economic crisis and recovery assessment. Washington DC: IMF.

IX) OHCHR (2024) Sri Lanka Accountability and Human Rights Update Report. Geneva: United Nations.

X) Paris, R. (2020) At War’s End: Building peace after civil conflict (updated ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

XI) Richmond, O.P. (2022) Peace Formation and State Legitimacy in Post-Conflict Societies. London: Routledge.

XII) Scott, J.C. (1998) Seeing Like a State. New Haven: Yale University Press.

XIII) UNDP (2022) Human Security and Development in Sri Lanka: Post-Conflict Assessment Report. New York: United Nations Development Programme.

XIV) UNICEF (2024) Child Protection and Violence Prevention in Sri Lanka. Colombo: UNICEF Sri Lanka.

XV) UNICEF (2025) Protecting Children in Crisis-Affected Regions of Sri Lanka. Colombo: UNICEF Sri Lanka.

XVI) World Bank (2023) Sri Lanka Development Update: Recovery and Institutional Resilience. Washington DC: World Bank.

XVII) Constitution of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka (1978, as amended).

XVIII) Public Security Ordinance (Sri Lanka, 1947, as amended).

XIX)International Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (1948) United Nations.

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