GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS AND THE FUTURE OF HUMAN SECURITY

An international awareness statement on conflict, political instability, economic insecurity and emerging global risks

By Balananthini Balasubramaniam (Nila Bala)

International Research Leader | Peacebuilding Strategist | Human Security Specialist

The world is experiencing a period of profound geopolitical, economic and social transformation. Developments across the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Asia demonstrate that global instability cannot be understood by examining wars, elections or economic indicators in isolation. These developments are interconnected through political power, economic interests, resource competition, climate pressures, technological change and the structural vulnerabilities of societies.

The Future Trends newsletter published by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) on 3 November 2026 provides an important starting point for examining these emerging challenges. However, the deeper question is not simply what is happening around the world, but why these developments are occurring, who is affected, and what they mean for the future of human security.

My concern is that international discussions frequently concentrate on political leadership, military strength and economic recovery while insufficient attention is given to the everyday realities of vulnerable populations.

We must therefore examine the following developments through a wider human-security and peacebuilding perspective.

1. ISRAEL: POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION AND THE QUESTION OF DEMOCRATIC REPRESENTATION

Israel's political situation illustrates the difficulties of forming a stable government in a deeply divided political environment.

The reported parliamentary calculations indicate that Netanyahu's political bloc holds approximately 53 seats, while the opposition grouping associated with Gadi Eisenkot has approximately 48. Arab-led parties account for approximately 19 seats. With 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority, these parties could become significant in determining the formation of a government.

However, parliamentary arithmetic should not be confused with genuine political inclusion.

The participation of Arab political representatives in government negotiations does not automatically guarantee equal citizenship, meaningful representation or substantive progress towards resolving the Palestinian question.

The fundamental issue is whether political institutions can accommodate different communities through equality, democratic participation and respect for human rights.

A government may achieve a parliamentary majority without resolving the structural inequalities and political grievances within society. Democratic stability requires more than elections; it requires institutional legitimacy and equal protection.

2. GLOBAL PEACE: FEWER CONFLICT DEATHS DO NOT NECESSARILY MEAN MORE PEACEFUL SOCIETIES

The IEP Quarterly Peace Briefing covering July–September 2026 presents several important figures:

• 5,413 reported riots, an increase of 11.7% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.

• 24,296 conflict-related deaths, a decrease of 4.7%.

• 716 terrorism-related deaths, a decrease of 41.4%.

The figures highlight an important distinction.

A reduction in conflict-related deaths is encouraging, but the increase in riots indicates that social and political tensions remain significant.

According to the briefing, Palestine accounted for approximately 31.5% of recorded riots, while Ukraine accounted for approximately 68.5% of conflict-related deaths during the reporting period.

These figures should be understood within the definitions and geographical coverage of the datasets used.

We must distinguish between two dimensions of peace:

Negative peace: The reduction or absence of direct physical violence.

Positive peace: The presence of justice, equality, accountable institutions, social trust, economic opportunity and conditions that allow people to live without structural insecurity.

A society can experience fewer deaths from armed conflict while continuing to experience poverty, discrimination, political exclusion, displacement and social unrest.

Measuring peace only through the number of deaths or armed confrontations provides an incomplete understanding of human security. We must also measure the conditions that produce vulnerability and instability.

3. EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA AND THE RED SEA: THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF REGIONAL SECURITY

Egypt's reported parliamentary authorisation for President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to provide defensive military support to Saudi Arabia, if requested, demonstrates the growing strategic importance of regional security arrangements.

The development must be understood within the wider context of Houthi attacks, regional military tensions and the security of international maritime routes.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea are strategically important for international shipping. Disruption to these routes can affect the movement of goods, energy supplies, shipping costs and the wider global economy.

The Suez Canal is also central to Egypt's economic and geopolitical interests.

However, parliamentary authorisation does not establish that Egyptian forces have been deployed. It is important to distinguish between political authorisation, military preparedness and actual military intervention.

Regional conflicts do not remain confined to the countries directly involved. Disruption to strategic maritime routes can affect international trade, food prices, energy security and the economic stability of countries far beyond the conflict zone.

4. SUDAN: CONFLICT, CLIMATE PRESSURE AND THE HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY

Sudan demonstrates how armed conflict, displacement, economic collapse, drought and food insecurity can combine to produce a severe humanitarian emergency.

Humanitarian figures reported in October 2026 indicate that approximately 19.5 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, including around five million people experiencing emergency levels.

Without urgent intervention, severe acute malnutrition among children could exceed 825,000.

These conditions cannot be explained by climate change alone.

The humanitarian crisis is connected to several interacting factors:

• Prolonged armed conflict and insecurity.

• Destruction of agricultural production and markets.

• Forced displacement and loss of livelihoods.

• Restricted humanitarian access.

• Drought and environmental pressures.

• Weak governance and the breakdown of public institutions.

When these factors reinforce one another, communities lose their ability to withstand shocks.

Children, women, displaced populations and people without secure access to food, healthcare and education experience particularly severe consequences.

Climate insecurity becomes even more dangerous when societies are already affected by conflict, political fragmentation and institutional weakness. Humanitarian intervention must address both immediate survival and the structural causes of vulnerability.

5. EUROPE: ECONOMIC INSECURITY, PUBLIC DISSATISFACTION AND ENERGY PRESSURES

Europe is also experiencing growing economic and political pressures.

Youth protests in Germany reflect wider concerns about economic opportunity, public policy and the future facing younger generations.

At the same time, 11 European Union countries have reportedly committed to releasing 20.5 million barrels of diesel from strategic reserves by the end of January 2027.

Such measures illustrate the importance of energy security in maintaining economic stability.

Fuel prices and supply disruptions affect much more than transport. They influence:

• Agricultural production and food distribution.

• Manufacturing and industrial operations.

• Public transport and logistics.

• Household expenditure.

• The cost of goods and services.

• International travel and aviation.

Any sustained increase in aviation fuel costs could also place upward pressure on air ticket prices.

The wider concern is that national economic indicators may suggest recovery while households continue to experience financial pressure.

Economic growth does not automatically translate into improved living conditions. A country may report positive economic performance while ordinary people struggle with housing costs, food prices, energy bills and insecure employment.

6. POLAND: CONSTITUTIONAL DISPUTES AND THE IMPORTANCE OF INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE

Poland's constitutional crisis highlights the importance of the relationship between elected governments, judicial institutions and constitutional authority.

The dispute involves the legacy of judicial appointments made under the previous PiS government, the present government led by Donald Tusk, presidential vetoes and disagreements concerning the Constitutional Tribunal.

This is not simply a disagreement between political parties.

It raises a fundamental democratic question: how can a country maintain constitutional legitimacy when political institutions disagree over the legal authority and independence of the judiciary?

Democracy requires more than the election of political representatives. It also requires independent courts, constitutional accountability, legal certainty and public confidence in institutions.

When judicial institutions become deeply entangled in political competition, public confidence in the rule of law can deteriorate. Institutional independence is essential to democratic stability.

7. ECONOMIC RECOVERY: THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NATIONAL STATISTICS AND PEOPLE'S REALITIES

One of the most important lessons from international economic developments is that national recovery and household recovery are not necessarily the same.

A country may experience:

• Increased GDP.

• Improved investor confidence.

• Greater international financial support.

• Better fiscal indicators.

• Improved currency stability.

Yet its population may continue to experience unemployment, debt, reduced purchasing power, food insecurity and inadequate public services.

Sri Lanka provides an important context in which to examine this distinction.

Economic recovery must therefore be assessed not only through financial indicators but also through the distribution of economic benefits and the restoration of people's living standards.

An economy should not be considered fully recovered simply because its financial indicators improve. Recovery must be reflected in the security, dignity and economic autonomy of ordinary people.

8. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, CYBERSECURITY AND INFORMATION WARFARE

Technological development is creating new opportunities, but it is also producing new forms of insecurity.

China's investment in embodied artificial intelligence demonstrates the growing importance of integrating AI into physical systems, robotics and industrial applications.

At the same time, reported cyber incidents involving emergency applications in Russia and Ukraine demonstrate how digital platforms can be exploited to spread false information, including fabricated nuclear warnings.

This represents a serious evolution in information warfare.

Modern conflict is no longer restricted to conventional military operations. It increasingly involves:

• Cyberattacks against public infrastructure.

• Manipulation of emergency communication systems.

• Artificially generated misinformation.

• Psychological operations.

• Attacks on public confidence.

• Disruption of essential digital services.

The consequences can be particularly serious when false information spreads during an emergency, as people may make life-threatening decisions based on fabricated warnings.

Cybersecurity is no longer simply a technical responsibility. It is a fundamental component of national security, public safety, democratic resilience and human security.

9. THE INTERCONNECTED NATURE OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY

When these developments are examined together, a wider pattern becomes visible.

Political fragmentation, economic insecurity, climate pressures, armed conflict and technological threats are not independent problems. They can reinforce one another.

For example:

1. Political exclusion can weaken public confidence in institutions.

2. Weak institutions can increase social and economic vulnerability.

3. Economic insecurity can intensify public dissatisfaction.

4. Climate pressures can undermine livelihoods and increase displacement.

5. Displacement and resource competition can contribute to social tensions.

6. Digital misinformation can deepen divisions and undermine trust.

7. These interconnected pressures can create conditions for further instability.

This is why international research must move beyond isolated events and examine the structural relationships between political systems, economic conditions, social vulnerability and human security.

10. A NECESSARY SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND PEACEBUILDING

I believe international peacebuilding needs a stronger structural and human-centred approach.

Research should not merely document wars, political disagreements or humanitarian emergencies after they have occurred. It should identify the underlying conditions that make societies vulnerable to instability.

We need to ask:

• Who controls political and economic power?

• Which communities are excluded from decision-making?

• How do economic structures influence human vulnerability?

• How do education and access to knowledge affect individual autonomy?

• How do forced migration and displacement reshape social structures?

• How do climate pressures interact with political and economic inequalities?

• How can technology be used to protect people rather than expose them to further risks?

• What institutional conditions are necessary for sustainable peace?

These questions are essential to developing more effective approaches to conflict prevention, human security and social resilience.

My wider research interest is to understand the relationship between structural vulnerability, human autonomy and exploitation susceptibility. These issues must be considered not only at the individual level but also within the political, economic, educational and institutional systems that shape people's lives.

11. MY CENTRAL OBSERVATION: THE WORLD NEEDS STRUCTURAL PEACE, NOT SIMPLY THE ABSENCE OF WAR

The developments examined here demonstrate that the international community faces a complex challenge.

A reduction in armed conflict does not necessarily mean that people are living in secure conditions.

Economic recovery does not necessarily mean that inequality has been addressed.

Democratic elections do not necessarily guarantee political inclusion.

Technological advancement does not necessarily produce greater human security.

Humanitarian assistance does not necessarily remove the structural conditions that reproduce vulnerability.

Therefore, international research, diplomacy and peacebuilding must place people, institutions and structural conditions at the centre of their analysis.

Peace cannot be measured only by the absence of violence. It must also be measured by the presence of justice, human dignity, equality, institutional accountability and the capacity of people to exercise autonomy over their own lives.

The responsibility of researchers and peacebuilding practitioners is to identify not only the visible consequences of global instability but also the deeper systems that produce it.

The future of international peace depends on our ability to understand these connections before they develop into further humanitarian and political crises.

Balananthini Balasubramaniam (Nila Bala)

International Research Leader | Peacebuilding Strategist | Human Security Specialist

Founder and CEO – Small Drops

Research, Human Security, Structural Vulnerability and Peacebuilding

RESEARCH NOTE:

This awareness statement is based on the IEP Future Trends newsletter dated 3 November 2026 and the associated international reporting and research discussed above. Figures are reported estimates for the relevant reporting periods, not necessarily current totals. Political developments and humanitarian statistics should be checked against their original sources before formal academic or policy publication.